From chain event to managed position
Ingestion and position managers operate concurrently. Signing is serialized. Timed stages are elapsed spans—not six fixed RPC round trips. Latency must include detection, commit, decision, submission, receipt and management start, including failed attempts.
What learns from new data?
The reference classifier is a gradient-boosted tree ensemble with 44 inputs. New candidate observations change its inputs. Updated wallet histories change six wallet-derived inputs. Only an explicit training job changes the fitted trees.
NumPy and the pinned scientific dependencies are installed. The updated scorer loads a validated model bundle once in process, with bounded numerical thread use. Immutable snapshot versions record content, as-of cutoff and input history; a historical self-test does not overwrite live snapshots.
A fixed validation-derived cutoff does not guarantee selecting 20% of every future day's population. Comparing a score with a payoff-derived break-even probability requires matched horizons and calibrated conditional returns.
Measured discrimination, with the right target
Live-ledger level-50 crossings in the past three days, within the five-point decision band, with the full eight-minute follow-up. Selection uses the model decision, irrespective of later fill state. Same-block graduations and missing scores are excluded. Graduation means a later block no more than 480 seconds after the crossing.
| Crossing day | Ledger model | Selected hits / n | 8-minute precision | 95% interval | Own eligible base | Lift |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | 35d112eac93f | 40/119 | 33.6% | 25.8–42.5% | 51/426 = 12.0% | 2.81× |
| 2026-09-09 | 179612d6d326 | 9/32 | 28.1% | 15.6–45.4% | 14/97 = 14.4% | 1.95× |
| 2026-09-09 | 35d112eac93f | 8/49 | 16.3% | 8.5–29.0% | 14/203 = 6.9% | 2.37× |
These are retrospective database observations, not a globally atomic or receipt-certified snapshot. Intervals are per-token Wilson intervals; time/deployer dependence and repeated examination can make inference less certain. Previously reviewed days are development evidence, not a fresh promotion test.
Holdbacks help assess own-trading effects, but assignment, actual exposure and completed fills differ. Prediction parity establishes behavior on fixtures. Neither parity nor graduation lift establishes profitable execution.
Changes in this release
| Area | Implemented behavior |
|---|---|
| Execution | Durable attempts, shared nonce ownership, receipt reconciliation and management before optional delivery |
| Speed | Bounded optional work, receipt reuse, source-triggered wakeups with polling fallback and complete attempt timing |
| Data | Useful-source health, durable reconciliation/gaps, revision-aware consumers and short raw-input commits |
| Model | In-process scoring, retryable unavailability, immutable feature/snapshot provenance and versioned challengers |
| Exit research | Net curve reserves, current-holding pool quantities, consistent trailing and explicit unknown outcomes |
Activation status comes from the release record. Source changes alone do not prove that a running process loaded them.
Node and feed claims require measurement
A dedicated node may improve reliability; it does not guarantee immunity to stale state, outages or indexing delay. Wallet-set coverage is not event completeness or identical entry decisions. Compare the union of source decisions with the same policy, including misses and tokens graduating inside the observation window.
Reading a few child-chain blocks behind the sequencer is soft observation. Durable research and recovery need explicit ancestry and reconciliation semantics. Arbitrum finality documentation.
What still needs prospective evidence
Profit labels require executable quantity, liquidity, costs and timing. A pool price alone is insufficient. Missing prices remain unknown; the research search stops on incomplete outcome coverage rather than dropping those tokens. Pool state and pinned quote evidence are retained for validation.
New held-out days, source-parity results, complete economic labels and shadow performance determine whether a challenger deserves promotion. Historical shortcomings remain visible; no release claims an optimal exit or guaranteed profit.